Why It is Best Positioned of All the Vaccines to Handle the Pandemic and the Variants
So, what’s all this talk about Covid19 variants and new strains? When we speak of variants, we are talking about the spike protein. We are not talking about the information inside the virus. Think of the virus as a capsule. Inside the capsule is the viral RNA information to recreate itself but not the machinery to do so. The information inside virus capsule has to be injected into the host cell (the human cells) and use the machinery inside the host cell to manufacture more complete viral particles. This is the way the virus replicates and perpetuates itself. Recognize that the virus doesn’t have the machinery to replicate itself. Think of the Ford motor company assembly line. All the pieces to make a Ford car are delivered to the Ford factory. But they have to be brought into the factory and assembled into a car. The human host cell essentially provides the assembly line machinery to the virus RNA in order for the virus to create new viruses. The virus can’t recreate itself without the host cell. Think of the virus as software, they have information but it’s useless without a Mac computer. For all of you that are more biologically inclined, recall that viruses are neither procaryotes or eukaryotes because they lack characteristics of living things and can’t replicate on their own without a living cell.
All of the vaccines that you hear about do nothing to the RNA inside the virus particle. All of the virus vaccines that we presently have work on inhibiting the function of the spike protein. The spike protein is a spike on the outside of the virus particle that the virus uses in order to inject its RNA “software” into the host cell in order to use the host cell machinery to replicate itself. You can think of the spike protein as the needle on the end of a syringe. The fluid in the syringe is the RNA information that the virus is trying to inject into our host or human cells.
When we talk about Covid19 variants we are talking about variants in the spike protein or “needle” not the RNA inside the particle. So, let’s talk about the spike protein, it’s not actually a spike but a tangle of nucleic acids that are clumped together that looks like a spike depending on the magnification. Our vaccines are essentially teaching our bodies immune systems to create antibodies to that tangle of nucleic acids that are clumped together and glom on to and surround this spike, essentially turning that “sharp needle tip” spike into something that can’t pierce our human cells. If the Covid 19 virus can’t pierce our cells it can’t inject its RNA software into our cell to use our cell machinery to replicate itself, and thus the virus replication is eliminated.
Our antibodies are like goop surrounding and attaching on to the spikes, so the spikes don’t work. But what’s going on with the variants is the spikes are changing, not a lot but enough so that our antibodies are not completely inactivating the spike. The UK variant, the South African variant, the Brazilian variant all through genetic mutations altered their nucleic acids sequence in their spikes and through random natural selection have survived and become more dominant variants. These changes in the spike proteins allow the virus to evade the antibody defense mechanism that our vaccines have created and thus become a new strain available to freely infect and reproduce. Anyone who thinks this will stop with these three variants needs to take a re-fresher course in biology, because this process will continue and more variants are sure to pop up.
Now we thought that with so many antibodies glomming and sticking on to this long nucleic acid spike protein that small changes in the nucleic acid would not make a difference. We thought that all this antibody goop all over this spike protein would still stop the spike from injecting the viral RNA into our cells. We were wrong, small changes in amino acids in the nucleic acid sequence appears to be enough to allow the spike protein to still be effective with injecting the viral RNA into our cells. This is important because it means we are largely not immune to these variants. Whatever immunity we have to the original Covid 19 strain does not largely protect us from the variants. There is a difference in the immunity that our present vaccines provide us with when it comes to the variants. There are three dominant strains now, the UK variant, the South African variant, the Brazilian variant and there are certainly more to come. Sadly, we all have to individually access what risk we are willing to take as we develop mask fatigue and start to congregate again in close spaces.
So why is this important to us for general health issues and as investors? Well for one thing you need to understand variants should not be unexpected and we are not likely to be done with this anytime soon. When I hear that herd immunity is six months away, I just dispel it as just some type of superfluous bio-babble. We will have to worry about the variants taking a foothold in this country and around the world. This pandemic issue will be with us for several years and vaccines with boosters will be with us for several years, just like Bill Gates has repeatedly said. We will need booster shots against the variants regularly, and the time for “regularly” has not yet been determined. These may be more than yearly and could even be every eight months.
Those who think that vaccine companies late to the game will not succeed because the pandemic will be over just don’t understand the science or what are future needs will be. So which company is best equipped to handle the original strain as well as the UK variant, the South African variant, the Brazilian variant and all future variants? Let’s take a smart and educated look at this and use some real science and not a crayon to evaluate this.
Which vaccine creates the highest antibody level? Well, you guessed it, Novavax. The Novavax vaccine produced the highest level of neutralizing antibodies followed by followed by Moderna, followed by Pfizer, followed by JNJ, followed by Astra Zeneca. The higher the antibody level the more goop you have to glom on to the spike. Also, the more antibody levels you have the longer they will exist in your body. The Novavax vaccine also produced antibodies that had the highest crossover protection against the variants compared to all the other vaccines. We hope they last a year but with time all antibody levels will drop. So, quality and quantity of the antibody induced by the Novavax vaccine appears to be the best compared to all the other vaccines, including Moderna, Pfizer, J&J and Astra Zeneca. This should be no surprise as Novavax showed the greatest immunogenicity of all the vaccines early on. Nobody questions that the Novavax vaccine is the most effective against original Covid19 strain, the UK variant, the South African variant and the Brazilian variant. Their recent bump in stock price was a reflection on their recent announcement of their official results, 96% effectiveness, as well as Novavax being the best of all the vaccines in all categories of preventing disease, death, hospitalizations symptoms and side effects.
We will have to constantly update our vaccines to keep up with this evolving Covid19 virus. Which vaccine technology can pivot and produce the fastest vaccine for the variants as well as produce it and administer it? This is where Novavax appears to shine and why the different vaccine technologies (RNA, Protein, Adenovirus) make a difference.
Moderna and Pfizer can probably sequence the new variant spike protein the fastest and incorporate it into a booster within 2 weeks but their production capabilities are more time consuming. The protein-based vaccine of Novavax can create the booster probably within 2 months but can ramp up production much faster. So, the difference in both is negligible.
Novavax requires 5 micro grams of antigen with their adjuvant for their vaccine to be effective. Novavax can add as many variant spike protein antigens (each 5 micro grams) as they want to a vaccine booster. Novavax can add 5 micro grams of the new genetic sequence of the spike protein antigen for the UK variant, the South African variant, the Brazilian variant and any other variant that is identified into a single vaccine or booster. Novavax can create a vaccine to the original Covid19 and all the variants as a single dose without having any difference in tolerating the vaccine. That is not the case for the RNA vaccines, they use 100 micro grams of antigen RNA and with each additional 100 micro grams of antigen RNA for the variants the reaction to the vaccine becomes more intolerable. Once you get to 250 micro grams the tolerability of an RNA vaccine becomes more intolerable. It may be very difficult to make an RNA vaccine or booster that can cover multiple strains.
The Adenovirus vaccines of JNJ and Astra Zeneca have a different problem. They are not ideal for vaccines that require boosters. When this technique is used, the body reacts to the adenovirus the same way it reacts to the adenovirus information on the spike protein, namely the body makes antibodies to the adenovirus as well as the spike protein and it inactivates the adenovirus as a vector for the spike protein information. These vaccines will lose their effectiveness as a vaccine or booster.
Novavax has the global production capabilities to produce 4 billion doses a year and the need for these doses appears fairly certain for at least several years regardless of how rosy a picture is painted for emotional and psychological benefit. When people state that herd immunity is around the corner, you can be sure that the recommendation for vaccines and boosters will continue for years to assure that we minimize the risk of variants creating another crisis in America and around the globe. We will not be adopting a laissez faire policy relying on herd immunity as a strategy for preventing continued outbreaks. You already see countries in Europe experiencing a third wave and repeated lockdowns.
Let’s be conservative and say Novavax produces 3 billion doses a year at $16/dose. Well, you do the math and provide a modest 3-7 multiple that most companies in this class get and you can see that Novavax has the capability to be a monstrously large pharmaceutical company. Its present market price is 1/5 of what it could be and so is the stock price. I hope I am right but more importantly I hope that the characteristics of their vaccine is good for mankind.
Novavax has a vaccine that has the ability to produce the highest amount of neutralizing antibody levels, the Novavax antibodies have the greatest protection, they have the ability to produce booster shots and are already doing so that will be well tolerated, they have the ability for consistent and quality mass production of doses in the billions all of which will allow Novavax to remain long term as a great company with significant demand.
Novavax also has a seasonal flu vaccine, Nanoflu, which it plan on combining with the original Covid19 vaccine and all the present variants. It will also have the capability to update the vaccine as the virus evolves into new strains. As you look at lists of 100 baggers, you will see that many are 100 baggers several times over. Novavax should become one of those 100 baggers.
Bravo