NOVAVAX, The Story of the Tortoise and the Hare.

Let’s discuss why a real vaccine race does not exist and why we are in a circular holding vaccine pattern for several years.  Yes, we want to see Novavax Covid19 vaccine get approved quickly and yes for every week delay of vaccine approval lives are lost, but approval of the Novavax Covid19 vaccine should be within several weeks.  It’s unfortunate that the vaccine with so many great characteristics: safety, immunogenicity and neutralizing antibody levels, the greatest efficacy against the original strain and the variant strains, excellent shelf life and storage characteristics has not yet been approved.  

The early recommendations to share vaccines around the world was the realization that the variants are not only a plane ride away but also the realization that variants will pop up in our own backyard, which is occurring real time.  The longer the virus is around the greater chances are that the virus will mutate.  So, until global eradication of the virus occurs, you can be sure that vaccination programs will continue.  Sure, we want to see global vaccination because that’s the pathway to getting back to what we have called our historical normal way of life for years.  With viral mutations occurring, Covid19 will be with us for many years. This is not just my idea this has been discussed by many:

  • “My personal opinion is that we should be planning for booster shots for at least the next few years,” Borkovich
  • “I predict SARS-CoV-2 will continue to be an issue in the coming years because of the rise of viral variants and the delays in global vaccination,” Juliet Morrison 
  • “Since(variants) then it has been detected in 50 jurisdictions in the United States, and likely accounts now for about 20 to 30% of the infections in this country. And that number is growing,” Fauci 
  • “One of the most important one will be to find out how long it will take to lose immunity after infection or vaccination,” Karine Le Roch 

So, the runway for Novavax continues to be wide and long for them to takeoff.  Although they were not the first to take off, the demand for their vaccine will remain globally high for many years and should actually become the go to vaccine going forward because of their vaccine characteristics: The greatest immunogenicity of all the Covid19 vaccines, longest shelf life, highest safety profile, greatest ability to mass produce quantities in vaccine, temperature stable and greatest efficacy against original Covid19 strain and all variants.  

Herd immunity can only be measured in retrospect.  For something like Covid19, and the concern with variants becoming out of control, vaccinations will continue until we are sure that this Covid19 scourge is well under control.  So again, that takes us to vaccination programs that will last several years.  Think about for how many years we vaccinated against measles, mumps and Rubella; in case you don’t know those vaccination, programs have never ended. 

There is no easy and efficient way to test for herd immunity.  Herd immunity is something that we will look back upon and say well we reached it on such and such a date.  Also recognize that herd immunity is not equivalent to eradicating the disease.  Herd immunity will just control massive outbreaks and spreading.  Herd immunity with Covid19 is a bit of a misnomer.  It implies a safety net but that safety net is full of massive holes, in that it will not eliminate the need for vaccination on a long-term basis. There is a massive underestimation going on with how long these vaccination programs will continue, suffice it to say it will be a very long time to prevent this global shut down from happening again.  

The association with viruses and appendicitis, transverse myelitis, stroke and vasculitis is nothing new. In fact, appendicitis and strokes have a seasonal association that parallels flu seasons. This has long been noticed that somehow there is a vasculitis that exist with some viruses. So, when DVT’s and strokes were identified with virus vector vaccines (Astra Zeneca and JNJ) a scientific pathway existed to believe that some cause and effect did indeed exist. Whether these vaccines were going to be allowed for usage or not would be determined by statistics. Just because the statistical risk was negligible doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist. Getting the vaccine out, getting the economy going again vs. the individual risks of the vaccine itself. It’s a tough question and I’m glad I don’t have to answer it. The individuals have to decide if they accept the risk of the vaccine versus the delay in the economy opening for a few extra weeks. Adam Smith’s idea that individual self-interest serves the common good versus John Nash’s opinion where what’s good for the individual and the group best serves the common good. Everything needs to be evaluated through the lens discriminating individual benefit vs group risk.

Getting a blood clot in your leg is very different than getting a blood clot in your brain and Several isolated cases of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis were identified after adenovirus vector Covid19 vaccine usage. Some of what’s been published so far is the following:

“Amid blood clot concerns following the inoculation with the vaccine developed by AstraZeneca, two groups of medical experts from Norway and Germany say they have found the mechanism and a possible treatment for the rare events, the WSJ reports” 

“Team has identified an antibody created by the vaccine as the trigger for the adverse reaction, Chief physician of the Oslo University Hospital”

“A team of German researchers Andreas Greinacher led by Andreas Greinacher, professor of transfusion medicine at the Greifswald University Clinic said they have independently reached a similar conclusion.”

“Noting that findings are no reason for people to fear to get Astra’s COVID-19 shot, Prof. Greinacher added, “very, very few people will develop this complication. but if it happens, we now know how to treat the patients.” Well, that’s great for the majority but bad for those that suffer this complication.  

“After a quick diagnosis, any midsize hospital could treat the condition, he said, and after a review of Prof. Greinacher’s findings, the German Society for Thrombosis and Hemostasis Research has issued guidelines on how to diagnose and treat the condition.” That’s nice to hear that they can treat blood clots and strokes, but I would rather not have those complications.  

“AstraZeneca has declined to comment and after a review of cases in Norway and Germany, the EMA has reiterated the vaccine’s favorable risk-benefit profile. The German government is assessing the findings and has not changed its decision to resume the vaccine rollout.”

“Meanwhile, ahead of a possible decision by the   FDA on emergency use approval for Astra’s COVID-19 shot, the U.S. government is sending millions of the vaccine doses to its neighbors.” 

“Johnson & Johnson launched its phase 3 trials in September 2020, aiming to enroll 60,000 participants worldwide. It was paused on Oct 12, after a participant suffered a stroke following vaccination.  An investigation could not identify a clear cause for the stroke, nor evidence that the stroke was triggered by the vaccine.”

I must admit there were a few funny comments published on this topic, and to just inject a little levity in to this conversation I thought I would post them:

  • “People are forming clots and dying.. Where do i sign up for this shot ??”
  • “The average Guy think that clots are the only problem from these rushed vaccines. I really don’t want to deal with Bells Palsy either.. Make room in the car for me !!”

Perhaps a little truth in these posts.

I am not in agreement with “vaccine hesitancy” or the “epidemiological moochers.” But I would not be opposed to wait and be safe a few more weeks to get one of the vaccines that are safer and have higher efficacy, namely Pfizer, Moderna and hopefully Novavax within the next few weeks.

“Science is organized common sense where many a beautiful theory was killed by an ugly fact,” Thomas Huxley.

People shouldn’t be so quick to dispel the risks of some of these vaccines on an individual basis. Best guess, science is not settled on this issue. This site is to educate you and let you make your own individual decision on vaccination and timing and maybe even in investing.

Only Johnson & Johnson has set its primary efficacy objective as the prevention of moderate or severe COVID-19.  Pfizer, Moderna and Novavax have a primary efficacy objective of preventing any COVID-19, no matter the severity. Those are very different endpoints.  Pfizer, Moderna and Novavax have a primary efficacy objective of preventing ANY Covid-19, no matter the severity.

AstraZeneca’s vaccine, AZD1222, uses a non-replicating adenovirus platform to express the wild-type version of the spike protein This vaccine does not contain stabilizing mutations and this virus-based vaccine platform has the risk that the immune system will clear the virus before it can infect host cells to produce the antigen.

Another question that hasn’t been answered with our rush to use any available vaccine, including ones with 66% – 70% (Johnson and Johnson  and Astra Zeneca) success in preventing moderate and severe illness is the idea of the Hoskins Effect or original antigenic sin.  This is a phenomenon where the body’s immune response to a new version of a virus preferentially drifts towards the original antibody response even though the virus, vaccine or booster is presenting a new change in the spike protein.  Antigenic sin means you are condemned to the original antibodies and you somehow don’t create new antibodies to the new variants, new vaccines or boosters.  Essentially the better the original vaccine the better the better we would be in the long run.  Perhaps we should not rush to jab a needle into every arm. It may be the rest of the world will have the best vaccine as future vaccines distributed later in the year will most likely contain the original and all variant strains in a single vaccine.   There doesn’t seem to be any question that the best vaccine that has the greatest coverage is the Novavax vaccine.  

The road to mass vaccination remains filled with many challenges. This science is not settled. I remind you that science is never settled. What I believe is settled is that on a global stage, the demand for Novavax to complement the vaccine stage remains strong and will last very long, the marathon. Don’t consider for a minute that the world doesn’t need the Novavax Covid19 vaccine. I wish I knew when the approval of the Novavax vaccine would occur, but I don’t. So, fret not that Novavax was not first to the game, fret not that it has not yet been approved, everything looks good for approval at a time when the demand will continue for their vaccine many years. The long-term viability and profitability of this company is not determined by a few weeks while we wait a little longer for approval. We all know the story about the tortoise and the hare and we know who wins, the hare, slow and steady.

Novavax Vaccine

Why It is Best Positioned of All the Vaccines to Handle the Pandemic and the Variants

So, what’s all this talk about Covid19 variants and new strains?  When we speak of variants, we are talking about the spike protein. We are not talking about the information inside the virus.  Think of the virus as a capsule.  Inside the capsule is the viral RNA information to recreate itself but not the machinery to do so.  The information inside virus capsule has to be injected into the host cell (the human cells) and use the machinery inside the host cell to manufacture more complete viral particles.  This is the way the virus replicates and perpetuates itself.   Recognize that the virus doesn’t have the machinery to replicate itself.  Think of the Ford motor company assembly line.  All the pieces to make a Ford car are delivered to the Ford factory.  But they have to be brought into the factory and assembled into a car.  The human host cell essentially provides the assembly line machinery to the virus RNA in order for the virus to create new viruses.   The virus can’t recreate itself without the host cell.  Think of the virus as software, they have information but it’s useless without a Mac computer. For all of you that are more biologically inclined, recall that viruses are neither procaryotes or eukaryotes because they lack characteristics of living things and can’t replicate on their own without a living cell.  

All of the vaccines that you hear about do nothing to the RNA inside the virus particle.  All of the virus vaccines that we presently have work on inhibiting the function of the spike protein.  The spike protein is a spike on the outside of the virus particle that the virus uses in order to inject its RNA “software” into the host cell in order to use the host cell machinery to replicate itself.  You can think of the spike protein as the needle on the end of a syringe.  The fluid in the syringe is the RNA information that the virus is trying to inject into our host or human cells.  

When we talk about Covid19 variants we are talking about variants in the spike protein or “needle” not the RNA inside the particle.  So, let’s talk about the spike protein, it’s not actually a spike but a tangle of nucleic acids that are clumped together that looks like a spike depending on the magnification.   Our vaccines are essentially teaching our bodies immune systems to create antibodies to that tangle of nucleic acids that are clumped together and glom on to and surround this spike, essentially turning that “sharp needle tip” spike into something that can’t pierce our human cells.   If the Covid 19 virus can’t pierce our cells it can’t inject its RNA software into our cell to use our cell machinery to replicate itself, and thus the virus replication is eliminated.  

Our antibodies are like goop surrounding and attaching on to the spikes, so the spikes don’t work.  But what’s going on with the variants is the spikes are changing, not a lot but enough so that our antibodies are not completely inactivating the spike.  The UK variant, the South African variant, the Brazilian variant all through genetic mutations altered their nucleic acids sequence in their spikes and through random natural selection have survived and become more dominant variants.  These changes in the spike proteins allow the virus to evade the antibody defense mechanism that our vaccines have created and thus become a new strain available to freely infect and reproduce.  Anyone who thinks this will stop with these three variants needs to take a re-fresher course in biology, because this process will continue and more variants are sure to pop up.   

Now we thought that with so many antibodies glomming and sticking on to this long nucleic acid spike protein that small changes in the nucleic acid would not make a difference.  We thought that all this antibody goop all over this spike protein would still stop the spike from injecting the viral RNA into our cells.   We were wrong, small changes in amino acids in the nucleic acid sequence appears to be enough to allow the spike protein to still be effective with injecting the viral RNA into our cells.  This is important because it means we are largely not immune to these variants.  Whatever immunity we have to the original Covid 19 strain does not largely protect us from the variants.  There is a difference in the immunity that our present vaccines provide us with when it comes to the variants. There are three dominant strains now, the UK variant, the South African variant, the Brazilian variant and there are certainly more to come.  Sadly, we all have to individually access what risk we are willing to take as we develop mask fatigue and start to congregate again in close spaces. 

So why is this important to us for general health issues and as investors?  Well for one thing you need to understand variants should not be unexpected and we are not likely to be done with this anytime soon.  When I hear that herd immunity is six months away, I just dispel it as just some type of superfluous bio-babble.  We will have to worry about the variants taking a foothold in this country and around the world.  This pandemic issue will be with us for several years and vaccines with boosters will be with us for several years, just like Bill Gates has repeatedly said.  We will need booster shots against the variants regularly, and the time for “regularly” has not yet been determined.  These may be more than yearly and could even be every eight months.

Those who think that vaccine companies late to the game will not succeed because the pandemic will be over just don’t understand the science or what are future needs will be.  So which company is best equipped to handle the original strain as well as the UK variant, the South African variant, the Brazilian variant and all future variants?  Let’s take a smart and educated look at this and use some real science and not a crayon to evaluate this.  

Which vaccine creates the highest antibody level? Well, you guessed it, Novavax.  The Novavax vaccine produced the highest level of neutralizing antibodies followed by followed by Moderna, followed by Pfizer, followed by JNJ, followed by Astra Zeneca.  The higher the antibody level the more goop you have to glom on to the spike.  Also, the more antibody levels you have the longer they will exist in your body.  The Novavax vaccine also produced antibodies that had the highest crossover protection against the variants compared to all the other vaccines.  We hope they last a year but with time all antibody levels will drop. So, quality and quantity of the antibody induced by the Novavax vaccine appears to be the best compared to all the other vaccines, including Moderna, Pfizer, J&J and Astra Zeneca.  This should be no surprise as Novavax showed the greatest immunogenicity of all the vaccines early on.  Nobody questions that the Novavax vaccine is the most effective against original Covid19 strain, the UK variant, the South African variant and the Brazilian variant.  Their recent bump in stock price was a reflection on their recent announcement of their official results, 96% effectiveness, as well as Novavax being the best of all the vaccines in all categories of preventing disease, death, hospitalizations symptoms and side effects.   

We will have to constantly update our vaccines to keep up with this evolving Covid19 virus. Which vaccine technology can pivot and produce the fastest vaccine for the variants as well as produce it and administer it?  This is where Novavax appears to shine and why the different vaccine technologies (RNA, Protein, Adenovirus) make a difference.  

Moderna and Pfizer can probably sequence the new variant spike protein the fastest and incorporate it into a booster within 2 weeks but their production capabilities are more time consuming.  The protein-based vaccine of Novavax can create the booster probably within 2 months but can ramp up production much faster.  So, the difference in both is negligible.   

Novavax requires 5 micro grams of antigen with their adjuvant for their vaccine to be effective.  Novavax can add as many variant spike protein antigens (each 5 micro grams) as they want to a vaccine booster.  Novavax can add 5 micro grams of the new genetic sequence of the spike protein antigen for the UK variant, the South African variant, the Brazilian variant and any other variant that is identified into a single vaccine or booster.  Novavax can create a vaccine to the original Covid19 and all the variants as a single dose without having any difference in tolerating the vaccine.  That is not the case for the RNA vaccines, they use 100 micro grams of antigen RNA and with each additional 100 micro grams of antigen RNA for the variants the reaction to the vaccine becomes more intolerable. Once you get to 250 micro grams the tolerability of an RNA vaccine becomes more intolerable. It may be very difficult to make an RNA vaccine or booster that can cover multiple strains.  

The Adenovirus vaccines of JNJ and Astra Zeneca have a different problem.  They are not ideal for vaccines that require boosters.  When this technique is used, the body reacts to the adenovirus the same way it reacts to the adenovirus information on the spike protein, namely the body makes antibodies to the adenovirus as well as the spike protein and it inactivates the adenovirus as a vector for the spike protein information.  These vaccines will lose their effectiveness as a vaccine or booster.  

Novavax has the global production capabilities to produce 4 billion doses a year and the need for these doses appears fairly certain for at least several years regardless of how rosy a picture is painted for emotional and psychological benefit.  When people state that herd immunity is around the corner, you can be sure that the recommendation for vaccines and boosters will continue for years to assure that we minimize the risk of variants creating another crisis in America and around the globe.  We will not be adopting a laissez faire policy relying on herd immunity as a strategy for preventing continued outbreaks.  You already see countries in Europe experiencing a third wave and repeated lockdowns.  

Let’s be conservative and say Novavax produces 3 billion doses a year at $16/dose.  Well, you do the math and provide a modest 3-7 multiple that most companies in this class get and you can see that Novavax has the capability to be a monstrously large pharmaceutical company.  Its present market price is 1/5 of what it could be and so is the stock price.  I hope I am right but more importantly I hope that the characteristics of their vaccine is good for mankind.  

Novavax has a vaccine that has the ability to produce the highest amount of neutralizing antibody levels, the Novavax antibodies have the greatest protection, they have the ability to produce booster shots and are already doing so that will be well tolerated, they have the ability for consistent and quality mass production of doses in the billions all of which will allow Novavax to remain long term as a great company with significant demand.  

Novavax also has a seasonal flu vaccine, Nanoflu, which it plan on combining with the original Covid19 vaccine and all the present variants. It will also have the capability to update the vaccine as the virus evolves into new strains. As you look at lists of 100 baggers, you will see that many are 100 baggers several times over.  Novavax should become one of those 100 baggers.    

“J&J Falls Well Short Of Competitors”

Moderna, Pfizer and Novavax defined a cough plus positive PCR test as enough to count toward their primary endpoints, showing 94%, 95% and 96% efficacy in preventing cough and a positive PCR test.

J&J’s definitions were a little different.

J&J’s trial defined: 

MODERATE COVID-19

  1. as a positive PCR test plus at least one of the following: 
    1. evidence of pneumonia
    2. deep vein thrombosis
    3. shortness of breath or:
    4. abnormal blood oxygen saturation above 93%
    5. respiratory rate ≥20
    6. two or more systemic symptoms suggestive of COVID-19. 

SEVERE COVID-19 

  1. as a positive PCR test plus at least one of the following: 
    1. signs consistent with severe systemic illness 
    2. admission to an intensive care unit
    3. respiratory failure
    4. shock
    5. organ failure or death
    6. among other factors

J&J’s vaccine is 65% effective at preventing moderate disease.  That means 35% still developed evidence of pneumonia, deep vein thrombosis, shortness of breath or abnormal blood oxygen saturation above 93%, or respiratory rate ≥20); or two or more systemic symptoms suggestive of COVID-19. More than a 1/3 of patients still develop evidence of pneumonia, deep vein thrombosis, shortness of breath or abnormal blood oxygen saturation above 93%, or respiratory rate ≥20); or two or more systemic symptoms suggestive of COVID-19.  None of these symptoms should be considered insignificant and can leave patients with permanent physical and mental disabilities.

Moderna, Pfizer and Novavax had less than 4-6% of patients develop any symptoms at all.  

J&J’s vaccine is 85% effective at preventing severe disease: severe systemic illness, admission to an intensive care unit, respiratory failure, shock, organ failure.  15% of the time it did not prevent severe systemic illness, admission to an intensive care unit, respiratory failure, shock, organ failure. None of these symptoms should be considered insignificant and can leave patients with permanent physical and mental disabilities.

The title of a recent article read:

J&J COVID-19 Vax Effective Against Severe Disease

— But overall efficacy falls well short of competitors

But how would it look if it read:

J&J COVID-19 Vax Effective Against Severe Disease

— But overall efficacy falls well short of competitors

I understand in the J&J study nobody died in the J&J study and that is great but death is a nebulous endpoint for a variety of reasons, namely that our ability to prevent death from Covid19 has dramatically improved.

Anthony Fauci, MD, said in a media briefing that if there had not been vaccine candidates showing 94% and 95% efficacy, “one would’ve said this [72% efficacy] was an absolutely spectacular result.” All I can say regarding this statement is Really?

I understand that we want to vaccinate the public as fast as possible, but the public needs to know how protected they are!

Novavax vaccine, based on PCR testing, was was 95.6% against the original COVID-19 strain and 85.6% against the U.K. variant strain in the post-hoc analysis.  Novavax data suggest that prior infection with COVID-19 may not completely protect against subsequent infection by the South Africa escape variant. The South African variant includes multiple mutations in the coronavirus spike protein. Novavax is developing a booster dose and/or combination bivalent vaccine for the new strains, and to test these new vaccines in the second quarter of 2021.

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/90940

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/90942?vpass=1

Further Comparisons of Novavax, Johnson & Johnson and Other Vaccines

“The overall global efficacy of JNJ vaccine was 66% against moderate to SEVERE ILLNESS. But it was 85% effective against SEVERE DISEASE and, in trials underway 100% effective at preventing death, as no one who got the vaccine died from Covid-19.”

  • What’s the difference between SEVERE ILLNESS AND SEVERE DISEASE? According to this chart 34% still get moderate to severe illness.  Don’t get lost in the statistical verbiage.  You can shake and bake these numbers all you want but 34% still get moderate to severe illness.  If you are in the 34% SEVERE ILLNESS or 15% SEVERE DISEASE category what happens?  Do you have chronic lung issues, blood clots, chronic fatigue, brain fog, are you out of commission for months, do you have any of the severe side effects we have been hearing about? This is clearly less effective than what Pfizer, Moderna and Novavax are telling us.

“The overall global efficacy of Janssen’s vaccine was 66% against moderate to severe illness. But it was 85% effective against severe disease and, in trials underway, 100% effective at preventing death, as no one who got the vaccine died from Covid-19.”[i]  

  • We are indeed happy that nobody in this trial died.  Death rates have also dramatically dropped due to better management and a better understanding of this disease.  Usage of steroids, usage of the antibody serums and avoidance of intubation unless absolutely necessary have all contributed to a dramatically lower death rates secondary to Covid19 infection.  So, what is this moderate to severe illness, severe disease, death scale telling us compared to what Pfizer, Moderna and Novavax are telling us, which is a startling efficacy rate in clinical trials of 94% to 95.6% in preventing disease as well as even mild symptoms for the Pfizer, Moderna and Novavaxvaccines.   The Novavax vaccine provides 95.6% effectiveness in prevention of infection against the original strain of Covid19.  The J&J vaccine is less effective.  I understand we want to rush and open our economy but a 66% effectiveness with millions of people may leave a segment of the population at risk for the disease, at risk to continue the spread Covid19 and remain severely under protected against the variants.  

“Pfizer’s and Moderna’s vaccines had a startling efficacy rate in clinical trials of 94% to 95%. Real-world studies ofPfizer’s vaccine in Israel indicate that efficacy holds up. The risk of symptomatic Covid-19 — meaning people who got infected with the coronavirus and felt sick — decreased by 94% among people given two doses of the vaccine.”

“The Johnson & Johnson vaccine was tested after some of the troubling new coronavirus variants had started to circulate, including one first seen in South Africa, called B.1.351, that appears to weaken the body’s recognition of the virus — including after vaccination. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine’s efficacy was just 57% in South Africa, where B.1.351 is now the dominant variant, compared to 72% in the US, where it is far less common.”

  • Don’t underestimate the Covid19 virus ability to evolve into variants that become dominant.  The J&J vaccine was tested after the variants took a foothold.  The Pfizer, Moderna and Novavax appear more effective against the variants and have been tested against them as well.

“There are feelings that there are first- and second-class vaccines, with the latter relegated to low income, rural, or otherwise marginalized communities that has the potential to exacerbate existing mistrust,” she said. “Public health authorities must address these perceptions head on.” 

  • Yes, this is the concern.  Who gets what vaccine and which one do we want? I want as much protection for myself and fellow humans around the world against moderate to severe illness and severe disease.  I don’t want 34% of the population susceptible to moderate to severe illness and 15% to severe disease.  I want a 95% efficacy against infection.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/27/health/johnson-johnson-coronavirus-vaccine-explainer/index.html

“The J&J one-dose vaccine was shown to be 66% protective against moderate to severe Covid infections overall from 28 days after injection, though there was variability based on geographic locations. The vaccine was 72% protective in the United States, 66% protective in South America, and 57% protective in South Africa.”

“But the vaccine was shown to be 85% protective against severe disease, with no differences across the eight countries or three regions in the study, nor across age groups among trial participants. And there were no hospitalizations or deaths in the vaccine arm of the trial after the 28-day period in which immunity developed.”

  • Now this is an interesting statement, “no hospitalizations or deaths in the vaccine arm of the trial after the 28-day period in which immunity developed.” I hope that is an inaccurate statement.  If not, how many were hospitalized in the group that did not develop immunity?  Pfizer, Moderna and Novavax are telling us that 94-95.6% of patients developed immunity that prevented infection.  I would like to clearly know what percent of patients developed immunity that prevented infection with the J&J vaccine instead of this moderate to severe illness – severe disease description.

“It’s not yet known if any of these vaccines prevent asymptomatic infection with the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Nor is it known if vaccinated people can transmit the virus if they do become infected but don’t show symptoms.”

  • This is unknown because it has not yet been fully studied.  Historically if you are immune you are not a carrier. If you are not immune you can be a carrier.   The degree of immunogenicity provided by the vaccine may be different and I would expect that the vaccines providing 95% effective responses will prevent you from being a carrier. Although the statement, “It’s not yet known if any of these vaccines prevent asymptomatic infection with the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Nor is it known if vaccinated people can transmit the virus if they do become infected but don’t show symptoms,” is true it is extremely extremely unlikely that with vaccines preventing infection 95% of the time that those vaccinated people will be carriers.

“At 66 percent effective at preventing COVID-19 overall, the Johnson & Johnson vaccine is LESS EFFECTIVE than the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines.”

“This is the challenge when we talk about efficacy. What endpoint are you using? For Johnson & Johnson, their definition was: How many people are diagnosed with symptomatic COVID-19? So even though the vaccine didn’t prevent symptomatic cases quite as well as the Moderna or Pfizer vaccines, it did a great job preventing hospitalizations and deaths,” says Brandon Dionne, assistant clinical professor in the School of Pharmacy at Northeastern.

  • Precisely, what is the endpoint and what were the severe and moderate illness’ that people developed despite the J&J vaccine? Preventing hospitalizations and deaths unfortunately is not a scientific quantitative endpoint.  It is a strange metric to use in this situation especially when we want to compare Pfizer’s, Moderna’s, Novavax’s and Johnson & Johnson’s vaccines.  Who gets hospitalized is very subjective.  

“This is such a devastating disease. The need for vaccinations is incredible, and being able to offer another vaccine candidate and ramp up production really trumps any of the concerns about efficacy,” says Amiji. 

  • Well, that’s one opinion and there may be some truth to that. We need multiple companies to supply vaccines. But please let the public know what the risks are and what the effectiveness of this new J&J vaccine is.  

I would want a vaccine that is in the 95.6% effective category against the original strain and one that has been tested against the variants and found to be successful, that is the Novavax vaccine. The Pfizer’s and Moderna’s vaccine are not as good with the variants as the Novavax vaccine but at least they’re in the 95% effective category. What’s good for the masses may not be ideal for the individual.

These are prevention of infection numbers for Novavax.  The Novavax vaccine provides a 95.6% effective prevention of infection against the original strain of Covid19.  That is currently the  most effective vaccine.  Compared to a 66% prevention of moderate to severe illness for J&J Vaccine.  Yes, Novavax is still awaiting approval.  

Gorsky, chairman and CEO of J&J stated today on the Bloomberg network, “We have a safe and effective single shot vaccine available.”  He is absolutely correct; J&J has provided a safe and 66% effective single shot vaccine against moderate and severe illness available to the public.